Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.413527 1.602625 1.803433 2.032108 2.284838 2.555148 2.865658
2025-01-05 1.106384 1.355636 1.637424 1.977932 2.376494 2.826429 3.370888
2025-01-12 0.897287 1.184181 1.528289 1.967570 2.509208 3.150728 3.963117
2025-01-19 0.723429 1.028577 1.416674 1.939250 2.616338 3.455132 4.562752
2025-01-26 0.615985 0.940684 1.377227 1.994905 2.832257 3.912278 5.392255
2025-02-02 0.522141 0.856505 1.331424 2.036535 3.034606 4.371671 6.267946
2025-02-09 0.437012 0.770778 1.271643 2.051313 3.201997 4.800238 7.141460
2025-02-16 0.368572 0.698615 1.221331 2.072977 3.380675 5.259447 8.095178
2025-02-23 0.298579 0.610851 1.134122 2.027586 3.455603 5.577662 8.876608
2025-03-02 0.234983 0.521155 1.029735 1.940788 3.456918 5.786774 9.515457
2025-03-09 0.196414 0.469466 0.981525 1.939197 3.590867 6.204493 10.493660
2025-03-16 0.160888 0.415795 0.921012 1.908003 3.671995 6.545202 11.377422
2025-03-23 0.140329 0.390480 0.912528 1.974045 3.933447 7.208599 12.838031
2025-03-30 0.111356 0.338732 0.843225 1.918105 3.977235 7.521957 13.766191
2025-04-06 0.091321 0.302676 0.799645 1.905545 4.097519 7.973082 14.952488
2025-04-13 0.073763 0.267511 0.751188 1.876024 4.182795 8.370542 16.077243
2025-04-20 0.064112 0.251250 0.742735 1.928530 4.429491 9.068658 17.757023
2025-04-27 0.055153 0.234121 0.728986 1.967665 4.653668 9.742456 19.436943
2025-05-04 0.046425 0.214566 0.705244 1.980950 4.826640 10.334365 21.008377
2025-05-11 0.039353 0.197923 0.685712 2.001115 5.015496 10.968566 22.692691
2025-05-18 0.031391 0.174400 0.641959 1.956374 5.061196 11.332329 23.904856
2025-05-25 0.023935 0.148867 0.585917 1.871637 5.009488 11.501241 24.764033
2025-06-01 0.019800 0.135469 0.563399 1.869666 5.142433 12.043961 26.356095